BTC and select altcoins notched small gains after the Federal Reserve rolled out a 75 basis point rate hike, but technical analysis suggests that further downside is the most realistic outcome.
Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted close to the crucial support of $20,000 as traders panicked and dumped their holdings, fearing an aggressive rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve on June 15. Another reason for the sell-off could be fears of possible contagion if lending platform Celsius and crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) go belly up.
Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant showed 24-hour exchange inflows of 59,376 Bitcoin on June 14, the highest inflows since November 30, 2018. The Bitcoin miners also joined other investors in sending Bitcoin to the exchanges. The Bitcoin Miners to Exchange flow metric reached a seven-month high of 9,476, indicating that the miners may be anticipating a further fall in the near term.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Prominent investors are divided on whether a bottom has been made in Bitcoin or not. Galaxy Digital Holdings chairman and CEO Mike Novogratz believes that Bitcoin could hold $20,000 and Ether (ETH) may bottom out at $1,000. These levels were also referred to by Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former chief of BitMEX, who cautioned that if the levels crack, it may lead to “massive sell pressure in spot markets.”
What are the important levels to watch out for on Bitcoin and major altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin remains in a firm bear grip. The bulls tried to start a recovery on June 14, as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick, but the bears were in no mood to relent. They sold aggressively and pulled the price to $20,111 on June 15.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The sharp selling in the past few days has pulled the relative strength index (RSI) near 21. This suggests that a rebound is possible in the short term. The BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $24,562 and then to the 50% retracement level at $25,938. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense in this zone.
If the price turns down from this overhead zone, the bears will attempt to resume the downtrend by pulling the pair below $20,000. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the next support at $17,500 and later $16,000.
The buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($27,748) to indicate a potential trend change.
Ether is in a strong downtrend. The buyers tried to stall the decline on June 14 but they could not sustain the higher levels. The bears renewed their selling on June 15 but the bulls are defending the psychological level of $1,000 with all their might.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The incessant selling of the past few days has pulled the RSI into deeply oversold territory. This suggests that the selling may have been overdone in the short term. This could result in a strong bear market rally that may pick up momentum above $1,268. The ETH/USDT pair could then rally to the 20-day EMA ($1,636).
Alternatively, if the price continues lower and breaks below $1,000, it will suggest the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $900 where the bulls will again try to arrest the decline.
Binance Coin (BNB) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the crucial level of $211. The bulls tried to start a rebound on June 14 but they could not sustain the higher levels.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears took advantage of this and pulled the price below $211 on June 15. Although the downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to bears, the deeply oversold level on the RSI suggests a relief rally in the short term.
If bulls sustain the price above $211, the BNB/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the 20-day EMA ($275). A break and close above this resistance could suggest that the pair may remain stuck in a large range between $211 and $350 for some more days.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to resume the downtrend. The next support on the downside is at $186.
The bears tried to pull Cardano (ADA) below the support at $0.44 on June 13 and June 14 but failed to sustain the lower levels. This suggests that the bulls are defending the support zone between $0.44 and $0.40 aggressively.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 50-day simple moving average ($0.60). If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to $0.69 and then to $0.74. The bears are likely to defend this overhead zone with vigor.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA ($0.54), it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies.
The bears will then make one more attempt to sink the price below the support zone. If they succeed, the pair could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $0.30.
Ripple (XRP) dropped to $0.30 on June 13 which is the pattern target of the break below the descending triangle. The bears pulled the price below the support on June 14 but the bulls purchased the dip as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buyers are attempting to start a recovery that could reach the breakdown level of $0.38. If bears flip this level into resistance, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative. The sellers will then try to resume the downtrend and sink the XRP/USDT pair to the next strong support at $0.24.
On the contrary, if bulls drive and sustain the price above $0.38, it will suggest strong buying at lower levels. The buyers will then try to push the pair to the 50-day SMA ($0.45). The bears are likely to pose a strong challenge in the zone between $0.46 and $0.50.
Solana (SOL) is trying to sustain above the $26 level. The bulls tried to push the price back above the breakdown level of $35 on June 14 but the bears held their ground. This suggests that the bears are trying to flip the $35 level into resistance.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down and breaks below $26, it will suggest the resumption of the downtrend. The SOL/USDT pair could then decline to $22 and later to the psychological level at $20.
This bearish view could invalidate in the short term if buyers push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($38). If that happens, the aggressive bears who may have entered short positions below $35 may rush to the exit. That could result in a short squeeze and push the pair toward the overhead resistance at $60.
The buyers are trying to sustain Dogecoin (DOGE) above the psychological level of $0.05. The deeply oversold levels on the RSI indicate that a relief rally is possible in the short term.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will try to push the DOGE/USDT pair to the 20-day EMA ($0.07). If the price turns down from this level, the bears will again try to resume the downtrend and sink the pair to $0.04.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, the bullish momentum could pick up and the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.09). Such a move will suggest that the pair may have bottomed out in the near term.
Polkadot (DOT) has been trading near the crucial support of $7.30 for the past two days. Although bears pulled the price below $7.30, they could not sustain the lower levels. This indicates strong buying on dips.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If buyers sustain the price above $7.30, the DOT/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($8.80). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will suggest that the pair may consolidate between $6.36 and $12.44 for some time.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. A break and close below $6.36 could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $5 and later to $4.23.
UNUS SED LEO (LEO) dipped below the moving averages on June 13 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows aggressive buying at lower levels. That was followed by an inside-day candlestick pattern on June 14, indicating indecision among the buyers and sellers.
LEO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls tried to push the price toward the resistance line of the descending channel on June 15 but the bears had other plans. They have pulled the price back below the moving averages, increasing the possibility of a drop to the support line of the channel.
If the price rebounds off the support line with strength, it will indicate that the LEO/USD pair may extend its stay inside the channel for a few more days. The next trending move could begin if bears sink the pair below the channel or bulls thrust the price above the resistance line.
The bulls are attempting to defend the $0.000007 level aggressively. Shiba Inu (SHIB) formed a Doji candlestick pattern on June 14, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.
SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the uncertainty resolves to the upside and bulls push the price above $0.000009, the SHIB/USDT pair could rise to the breakdown level of $0.000010. If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the trend remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then attempt to resume the downtrend and sink the pair to $0.000006.
Alternatively, if bulls drive the price above the downtrend line, it could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.000014. Such a move could suggest that the pair may have bottomed out.
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Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.